Half empty, or half full?

Craft beer production growth is starting to slow down, but more breweries still are opening than ever, according to new numbers from the Brewers Association.

Production volume was up 8 percent for the first six months of 2016 compared to the same period last year, the trade association reports. That’s half the 16 percent growth measured at the same point in 2015, and the lowest since 2009.

But the number of breweries operating nationwide has reached a record high of 4,656 – up 917 since the same time last year – and is poised to grow by half again, with some 2,200 more breweries in the planning stages.

Those two sets of numbers may not seem to add up at first, but they reflect a trend that has seen sales slump for larger, more widely distributed craft brewers while smaller, neighborhood breweries are thriving.

“While the craft brewing industry is entering a period of maturation, most markets are not near saturation,” said Bart Watson, chief economist for the Brewers Association (pictured above).

“Production growth of small and independent craft brewers continues to be one of the main bright spots for domestic beer in the U.S.,” he said. “Even in a more competitive market, for the vast majority of small and independent brewers, opportunities still exist.”

There are other reasons for the slower growth rate. As overall production totals get bigger each year, it’s harder to keep growing by the same percentages. And buyouts by the big boys keep thinning the ranks of what are considered craft breweries by the Brewers Association; once they’re sold, their production numbers no longer count in the association’s totals.